Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
