Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are released from different nations. Considerable effort is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, continue.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
